Lebanon is a powerless country
Imagining that they will rid themselves of Hezbollah is ridiculous
Hezbollah is an integral part of their very divided nation, which includes Muslims, both Shia and Sunni, Christians, and Druze.
Hezbollah supporters are part of the Lebanese army. At the moment, there are quotas in the army of how many of which population are allowed, but that is something that can easily be changed by people who have enough force behind them – and that is how things are done in the Middle East.
Agreements are for the weak. Might is right. The strong get what they demand.
Should America decide to strengthen the Lebanese army so that they can “take care of themselves,” it will inevitably lead to Hezbollah swallowing the army and making it their own.
How many times in the past has America armed the “less bad guys” and ended up facilitating a new terror regime?
Is it good for Israel to make President Trump feel like he achieved something positive? In the short term, absolutely. In the long term, it is not a good idea to reinforce misconceptions about how security works and how peace is achieved.
Is it good to separate between the American failure in Iran and Israeli security needs? Absolutely.
Is it good to have a document to wave around when Westerners complain about Israel protecting Israel’s civilians from invasion, bombs, and mass destruction? Of course. Not that it will prevent people from complaining about Israeli expansionism, but it will help make the West leave us alone while we do what is necessary to protect our citizens. It won’t help much, but even a little is good.
It is historic that Lebanon is officially recognizing Israel, and the fact that reasonable relations are probably a good idea for them, but this is not a sign of “peace in our time.” It is a measure of how weak they are.
And the biggest problem is that if Israel has agreed to maintain the security zone, that implies that Israel will not enforce the rest of Lebanon, and that makes it very hard to prevent Hezbollah from regaining their strength throughout the country. It helps on the border. Absolutely. But that’s not enough to prevent long-range missiles or the rebuilding of the Hezbollah army.
So is this agreement good for Israel? Yes. And no.
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